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Football statistics for Over 1.5 goals
Saturday, 07 November 2009 11:21
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We don't need to talk about Over 1.5 football betting and how successful it can be. Couple of days ago, I've published my own recipe on how to pick suitable games, which is very profitable. But, I wanted to get some real stats about it, so I decided to run a list of all games from my recipe. Starting from last week in October. And not only that, there is a separate list of games that ended with 0-0 in half-time. This kind of short period stats are not very accurate, but I've been monitoring the Over 1.5 bets for over a year now and expect to see similar results in the long term.

over1.5_statistika_overall
On this list, you can see the number of games, where I've predicted Over 1.5 goals and how many bets were won. From 48 games, 39 actually produced at least 2 goals. So far, 81,25% of the games were won. How much money you make with it depends on the time of you placing the bets. I didn't monitor the time of first goal, so if we placed our bets sometimes after 20' minute of the game, (if no goals were scored) we used higher odds as we would, if we placed the bets before kick-off. And this brings us to the next list:
over1.5_statistika_za_november
Here is the list of games, which were predicted for Over 1.5 system, but all of them ended with 0-0 at half-time and the bets were placed after that. This means, we were able to bet at 2.0 or even higher odds. I've also written down the Betfair odds for Over 1.5 goals at half-time break and the time of first goal. If a goal is scored up to 70' minute of the game, the odds still drop enough so you can place a successful lay bet and win the bet. If the first goal is scored later, you might save your money with a positive 0 or end with a loss. After all, only 4 games ended with 0-0. All other games produced at least two goals, or at least one early enough to end without loss. In my experience, it doesn't pay off to sell the bet if it produces loss. Best example - Werder Bremen - Austria Vienna. First goal in 81st minute, there is no way to make profit if we sell the bet. Leave the position open. And in 83rd minute - another goal was scored.

It will be interesting to see how this list looks at the end of 2009. I monitor only games, which qualify with my recipe. (click here to read my guide on how to pick suitable games for Over 1.5 goals).

 
   
 
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