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Tennis school from Prague and Skistar Swedish Open
Monday, 12 July 2010 21:04
fognini1Fellow players, we are back with our tennis (betting) school, this time from Prague and Skistar Swedish Open from Bastad. After my trading posts, some of you wanted detailed information about Betfair in general and how did I do this and that.. I know, how confusing it can be if you don't know Betfair yet or feel insecure. This is why we'll take a look at today's trading day and show you on real-life examples what you must know and why some decisions have been made. The goal is simple. Let us make as much money as we can with this small yellow ball. Here is a bit long and detailed explanation of today's matches. Grab a drink, relax, read the article and maybe you'll learn something new. It all started with a match in Prague, between Rybarikova and Tatishvili. I admit, I do not know any of those two players. This is why I quickly take a look on different betting tips websites, some stats and all of them suggest - Rybarikova will win. BUT, there is a big difference here and you cannot be so sure in those tips - we are not talking about Top 10 player vs. NR. 300 , we are talking NR.60 vs. NR.155. This means nothing. Girls tennis' nature is unpredictable, and if you have two players who are struggling for their spot in the charts and aren't in the Top20 yet, anything is possible. Rybarikova wins the first set with 6-0. OK, I've personally never seen a game, where both sets would en with that result and Tatishvili had some good shots. It was obvious, after a slow start, she tried to save some energy for the second set and not try hard to get back in the first one. In was simply too late.

This is the first key-poing you have to know about. If somebody is falling behind with 5-0 or something, in 99% of the cases, the player will give up this set and give themselves a fresh new start in the second. Why bother if you need so many points and you opponent may need just two and all your work went down the drain? You still have another chance with the second set!

OK, I started too early with Tatishvili, placing a bet on her right after Rybarikova gave her a break. My entry point was at 3.95. First set, like we said, ended with 6-0, but the bet is still not lost. Now, the odds are getting really high, all the way up to 11! Time to place another bet with only 4€. Let's see...

tatishvilli

Tatishvili wakes up, has some good shots and this lowers her odds down to 3.0. Time to sell this bet and turn it into a free-bet. If you still don't know Betfair, please read our detailed tutorial first. In our example, back at 3.95 and 11, lay at 3.0 means a nice free-bet or a sure-bet. For now, I won't distribute the winnings on both players, we are looking at  +42,09€, if Tatishvili wins.

Our prediction is correct, she does win the second set. This lifts the odds for Rybarikova, but she isn't ready to go down without a fight. Now, I'll change the winnings and turn on the Rybarikova's side.

rybarikova

If she wins, I get +77€, or +7€ if Tatish...something wins. And for some time, she is looking pretty good, and then she isn't. I truly don't know how to change the bet now. Luckily, the odds for Tatishvili jump once again and I can distribute the profits:

ribarykova2

What a dilemma. Suddenly, Tatishvili is on the run. Waiting for a chance when she makes a mistake, which raises her odds once again and then, I decide to go for her. Final decision, whatever happens.

rybarikova3

And... Tatishvili gets a late break! YAY!!!! She wins the third set  5-7! This means +60€. Match finished.

While I was switching from one player to another, I've watched the game between Starace and Serra, but only with one eye. Serra is not a bad player, while Starrace always give me a bit lazy look. First set goes to Starrace (6-2), time to place a bet on Serra.

serra

This brings us to a very important fact - DON'T WATCH AND BET ON TWO GAMES AT ONCE. Concentrate on one only! Learn from my mistake. After the girls game ended, I switched to Serra's game and found out how sloppy he actually played today. Too late. One break and another and it's too late to save this bet. Another 6-2 loss, resulting in a loss of -19€.

Time for lunch, lazy time on my balcony with a bit of Wine. And this is the third point - TAKE A BREAK! Don't spend the whole day behind your computer. At least in my case - all those long hours always resulted in a loss.

Late afternoon, I'm checking out the Betfair live stream. What do we have? 4th POINT - bet /trade only if you can see the game! There will be a stream between Larsson and Pliskova. Who???? After that, there is Fognini, finally somebody I know, but for now, let's take care of the girls. Larsson is the favorite, let's check out her background. About background - this means current position, form,... Some basic information incl. betting prediction can be found on  Tennisprediction.com. OK, let the game begin. A match between Nr. 87 and 206. Not again... The fact is, Larsson is climbing really fast, while Pliskova has no detailed information, as she is very young and new at this. You can also check out  WTA TOUR. Click on "Players", enter both players' names and you'll get a comparison.

Even the Betfair commentator is a fan of Larsson, but Pliskova gets an early break. Hm.. What about the odds? Enough. Let's place a bet on Larsson. At 2-0 for Pliskova, our Swedish favorite is waking up, has some really good shots and you can see that she is a fighter. Voilla, a sudden re-break. Let's wait for her to get her own game and then we'll sell it. At 2-2:

pliskova1

Now I could easily distribute the winnings, but it doesn't make much sense in this case. Pliskova had a good start or better say - Larsson had a bad one. This is pretty common. We are watching the game, Pliskova is not an easy amateur, some of her shots are perfect. But, newcomers usually have troubles when they are facing a break chance. Doesn't matter - Larsson took both sets with 6-4 and as you can see - the result is pretty tight. It was not an easy win. We might hear more of Pliskova in the future, but for now +72,43€ is enough. You may also remember her for her big tattoo on her arm. We don't see that too often in tennis.

fognini3

My last game of the day. Fognini vs. Filipu Prpic. Who is Prpic? Never heard of him. But, it's not worth placing a bet on Fognini, because he should be the star of this match. Is he?

Prpic is serving like a little devil, he is good, precise, strong... I'm impressed. And Fognini is like...Fignini. He'd rather be playing in front of a big mirror so he can always see how beautiful he is and tell himself "you're the man". That's my opinion of him :-) But, we shouldn't forget - he is a great player! Occasionally he doesn't want to run on the court as it might affect his hair or something, but he is not bad at all. But, Prpic is good. NR. 303? What? How come? Prpic wins the first set! This is the moment we used to tell you about. The favorite player has a lot of experience, his hands won't be shaking when a break chance comes along, the are cold-blooded killers. Now, we can bet on Fognini.

Second set - won by Fognini 6-3!. Just like I predicted - let's sell it.

fognini

The third set was not a walk in the park, Prpic had several chances, but like we said...shaky hands...experience... Free bet won!

This concludes today's walk in our trading corner.

We have a special warning for you - the goal of this trading blog is to teach you to think like you're a player on the court. If you are 5-0 behind, will you try to get back in the game in the first set? I don't think so. You'll probably save your energy and give yourself a fresh start in the second, right? Wait...and place your bet once the first set is lost. This means more money. And so on... You should not look at those won bets and think of it like some kind of self-promotion or being patronizing, which is usually the case with web-betting-blogs. But, to avoid future misunderstandings, our articles won't have any winning screenshots involved. We will take an universal approach on what to look for, what happened, when, why in order to be prepared for each and every occasion when betting on tennis. Most importantly - we'll deal with the financial management, soon. How much to bet, how to save the bank if everything goes against us and so on.

For now, I can say, almost 100%, you won't be seeing me on a football match in the near future. Just take a look at yesterday's World Cup Finals game... Oh my god... Two hours of precious life wasted for good. We had a successful Over 1.5 system, but waiting an hour or even more for one lousy goal simply isn't good enough anymore.

Don't forget - bet on a sport you know, understand and like. I personally wouldn't bet on Cricket, as I know absolutely nothing about it. I always get this strange need for a sleep every time a game comes up :-)

We'll continue with our tennis trading soon, starting with financial management.

Good luck!

 
   
 
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